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When Balassa-Samuelson comes to Maastricht: debt-sustainability, growth and transition

Borgersen, Trond-Arne; King, Roswitha M
Working paper
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Hefte3-2011.pdf (391.6Kb)
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http://hdl.handle.net/11250/147465
Utgivelsesdato
2011-08-16
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  • Arbeidsrapport (Høgskolen i Østfold). ØSS [28]
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A dynamic stability approach is applied to show how the debt-servicing ability of

transition/developing economies exceeds that of mature market economies. At the core of this

debt-servicing advantage lies not only relatively higher growth but more importantly the

productivity- and efficiency gains released by the re-allocation and restructuring activities

originating in the developing economies’ unbalanced sectoral growth. First, the dynamic

stability approach is extended to allow for two sectors of production, allowing both growth

and sectoral composition to matter for stability and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Second, sector

sizes are endogenized to depend on the productivity growth difference. The model shows how

the equilibrium debt-to-GDP ratio depends on both an economy’s existing industrial structure

as well as on its structural flexibility and how it varies along a country’s transition trajectory.

All things considered, how much debt relative to GDP a country can (or should) sustain is

highly context specific and depends on the prevailing economic structure, composition of

growth, structural flexibility, and the prevailing incentives for restructuring. Hence this paper

delivers a cautionary note toward the one-size-fits-all approach to debt sustainability
Serie
Arbeidsrapport (Høgskolen i Østfold);2011:3

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